USDA Cuts Corn Yield Forecast as Soybean Production Hits Record High

Washington, D.C. – September 12, 2026

The U.S. Department of Agriculture trimmed its national corn yield forecast for the second consecutive month while raising soybean production to a record high, according to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Friday.

USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board projected the 2026/27 U.S. corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from August's estimate. Corn production is now projected at 15.8 billion bushels, down from 16.013 billion bushels in August. U.S. corn ending stocks were cut to 1.567 billion bushels, a reduction of 86 million bushels from last month.

Corn Conditions Deteriorate Throughout Summer

Corn conditions had declined through late August, with the crop rated 56 percent good to excellent as of the Crop Progress report dated September 8. That reading represented the lowest September opener in three years. Iowa State University Extension cropping systems specialist Mark Licht said cumulative stress during the season, including nitrogen deficiency in corn and sudden death syndrome appearing in soybeans, became increasingly visible in fields.

USDA raised its season average farm price for corn by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel, reflecting tighter supply conditions. The adjustment comes as trade analysts said the report validated a summer of deteriorating crop conditions across the Corn Belt.

Soybeans Post Record Production

Soybeans moved in the opposite direction from corn. USDA nudged the yield estimate up slightly to 52.8 bushels per acre from 52.7 bushels, pushing production to a record 4.535 billion bushels. Despite the higher output, ending stocks were cut to 310 million bushels from 320 million bushels in August after USDA raised its export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion.

The stronger export projection reflects increased demand, much of it linked to Chinese purchasing under a bilateral agreement reached earlier this year. The soybean season average price was raised 60 cents to $12.00 per bushel.

Global Trade Dynamics Shift

Globally, USDA cut its world corn ending stocks estimate to 272.1 million metric tons, down roughly 2.6 million tons from August. Russia's crop was lowered while Ukraine and Brazil remained unchanged. World wheat ending stocks were raised to about 276.3 million metric tons on better crops in Australia and Canada, though that figure remains lower than a year ago, with losses in the Black Sea region, Kazakhstan, and the European Union.

Wheat ending stocks held roughly steady at 717 million bushels, with the price raised 20 cents to $6.40 per bushel.

Market Response Measured

The report landed at a politically sensitive moment, roughly two weeks ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington, with Chinese state buyers actively purchasing U.S. soybeans under a bilateral agreement. USDA's higher soybean export number depends heavily on China following through on that commitment, making Beijing's buying pace as important to U.S. farmers as weather conditions this summer.

Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said the report confirmed what the market had largely already priced in, noting USDA had reduced the national corn yield "from 180.7 to 178 and a half bushels per acre" in a report that broadly matched trade expectations.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the bigger worry going in had been whether the yield would come in above 180 bushels, which would have signaled a much larger crop than the market anticipated. Even so, the actual numbers still landed above the average trade guess heading into the report, which meant futures markets reacted with mild profit taking rather than a rally.

December corn and November soybean futures both eased modestly on the Chicago Board of Trade following the release, continuing a pause after a sharp price run up through late August.

Objective Yield Survey Changes Take Effect

This was the first September WASDE to incorporate USDA's objective yield survey, where field agents count and measure ears and pods directly rather than relying solely on farmer surveys, a change the trade had watched for closely given how uneven the growing season had been. The methodology shift provides USDA with more precise field-level data but may reduce month-to-month comparability with previous years' reports.

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted the objective survey across representative fields in major producing states, with results factored into the final yield estimates released Friday.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), September 12, 2026. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Progress Report, September 8, 2026.