Brazilian Amazon — 28 January 2025
The humanitarian analysis organisation ACAPS released a thematic report on 28 January 2025 documenting the severe and ongoing impacts of the 2023–2024 drought on the Brazilian Amazon, warning that recovery remains uncertain despite the onset of the rainy season. The report, titled "Impact of Drought in the Brazilian Amazon and 2025 Outlook," provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of how the prolonged drought has affected communities, ecosystems, and livelihoods across the region.
The 18-month drought, which began in 2023 and extended through 2024, is considered the most intense since national drought monitoring began in Brazil around 1954. It was driven by a combination of climate change-induced temperature anomalies, deforestation, and the effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño climate pattern, which brought below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures to the region.
Scale of Impact
The drought affected 59% of Brazil's territory, causing water shortages and severe loss of livelihoods and crops. The areas worst affected include the states of Acre, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Rondonia, and Tocantins, which form part of the Amazon region in the northwestern and central-western parts of the country.
The drought also sharply increased wildfire activity. Satellite imaging from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research detected 140,328 fires in 2024, an increase of 43.7% compared to 2023 and the highest number recorded since 2007. Between January and October 2024, 37.42 million acres (150,000 square kilometres) of Brazil's Amazon burned, affecting more than 680 municipalities and approximately 18.9 million people.
Humanitarian Consequences
The ACAPS report detailed the cascading humanitarian impacts of the drought across multiple sectors:
Water, Sanitation, and Health
Indigenous communities depend on rivers for drinking water, but as water levels dropped, many were forced to drill artesian wells or drink from contaminated sources. In many drought-affected states, the limited water available from rivers or wells was contaminated by chemicals used in large-scale agricultural production. Communities resorted to drinking muddy water from rivers that had not yet dried, boiling it and using cloth as improvised filters.
By November 2024, at least 720 health centres in drought-affected areas had become non-operational due to insufficient supplies and inaccessibility. The prolonged drought combined with wildfires degraded air quality, resulting in respiratory problems — asthma, rhinitis, sinusitis, and throat infections — particularly among children and older people. At least 3,500 cases of severe respiratory diseases were linked to wildfires.
Food Security and Education
Low river flow severely restricted the transport of goods and staple foods, aggravating food insecurity in communities heavily reliant on river transportation. Fishing, a critical source of both income and food, was devastated as slowed river flow reduced oxygen and increased acidity, killing fish. By November 2024, over 100 schools in indigenous areas and 1,700 schools in non-indigenous areas had closed because of lack of water or inaccessibility.
The 2025 Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Grave Caveats
By January 2025, above-average rainfall had begun to provide relief to some drought-affected communities, particularly in Acre, Amazonas, Pará, and Tocantins states. La Niña conditions, which began in early January 2025, were expected to persist through February–April, typically bringing above-average rainfall to Brazil's northern regions.
However, the ACAPS report cautioned that recovery may be slower than anticipated. Several factors contributed to this uncertainty:
- Delayed rainy season: The start of the rainy season in late 2024 was delayed and weaker than usual, and by 23 January 2025, most Amazon states were still experiencing a below-average rainy season.
- Soil degradation: Drought conditions made the soil dry and compact, reducing its ability to absorb rainfall. This delayed the replenishing of groundwater and made areas experiencing above-average precipitation more susceptible to flooding and landslides.
- Persistent low river levels: Despite increased rainfall, many rivers' water levels remained below average for the time of year. The Rio Negro water level, for instance, remained significantly below the historical average as of January 2025.
- Wildfire risk: Precipitation forecasts suggested that the rainy season might not be sufficient to prevent the risk of widespread wildfires in 2025, especially across several parts of the Brazilian Amazon.
Drivers: Climate Change and Deforestation
The ACAPS report identified climate change as the primary driver of the drought, with El Niño as a contributing but secondary factor. A World Weather Attribution analysis found that climate change, rather than El Niño alone, was the main driver of the exceptional drought in the Amazon River basin. Drought in the Amazon is expected to become more frequent and severe as global temperatures continue to rise.
Deforestation also played a critical role. While official data indicates that deforestation decreased in 2024 compared to 2022–2023, approximately 6,288 square kilometres of forest were destroyed in the Brazilian Amazon in 2024. Deforestation alters rainfall patterns, leading to degradation even in areas far from the clearing. On average, for every 100 trees felled through deforestation, an additional 22 trees die in more distant regions due to water scarcity.
Cattle ranching is responsible for approximately 80% of current deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, while soybean farming also contributes significantly. In 2023, 44.5% of Brazil's cattle (104.3 million head) were found in the Brazilian Amazon, affecting endemic nature and biodiversity.
A Region in Transition
The ACAPS report underscores the growing recognition that the Amazon is undergoing a transition from a relatively stable climate system to one characterised by increasing extremes. The rapid swing from severe drought in 2023–2024 to above-average rainfall and flooding in early 2025 — a phenomenon some scientists have termed "climate whiplash" — poses unique challenges for communities and ecosystems that evolved under more predictable seasonal cycles.
Environmental experts continue to express concern regarding the increasing frequency of extreme weather events — both droughts and floods — linked to climate change and land-use alterations in the region. The Amazon's capacity to absorb and recover from these shocks is diminishing as deforestation fragments the landscape and as rising temperatures push ecosystems beyond their historical tolerance ranges.
Sources
- ACAPS, Impact of Drought in the Brazilian Amazon and 2025 Outlook (28 January 2025):
- World Weather Attribution, Climate Change Not El Niño Main Driver of Exceptional Amazon Drought:
- NASA MODIS, Drought Along the Amazon and Tapajós Rivers (28 October 2024):
- UNICEF, Drought Impact on Children in the Amazon (18 November 2024):
- Cary Institute, Amazon River Seeing More Droughts and Floods Due to Climate Change:
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