Dubai, United Arab Emirates · 13 December 2023 — The 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) concluded in Dubai on 13 December 2023 with a landmark agreement that, for the first time in the 28-year history of UN climate summits, included an explicit call for nations to 'transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.' The agreement, known as the 'UAE Consensus,' was adopted after two weeks of negotiations at Expo City Dubai involving representatives from nearly 200 nations and over 85,000 registered participants — the largest COP gathering to date.
The fossil fuel language was the most contentious issue of the conference. A coalition of more than 100 countries, including the European Union, small island states, and Latin American nations, pushed for a commitment to 'phase out' fossil fuels. This was opposed by oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, who argued that the focus should be on emissions rather than specific energy sources. The final compromise — 'transitioning away from fossil fuels' — was hailed as historic by some and criticised as insufficient by others.
The First Global Stocktake
COP28 was significant as the venue for the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement — a comprehensive five-step assessment of the world's collective progress toward the agreement's long-term goals. The GST, which began at COP26 in Glasgow and spanned two years of technical dialogue and political consideration, confirmed that the world is significantly off track.
According to the GST synthesis report, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 and decline by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to limit warming to 1.5°C. Current national commitments (NDCs) would, if fully implemented, reduce emissions by only about 2% by 2030 — far short of what is required.
The GST outcome at COP28 called on parties to contribute to global efforts through eight key actions:
- Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030
- Accelerating efforts toward the phase-down of unabated coal power
- Accelerating efforts toward net-zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century
- Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems
- Accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO₂ emissions, including methane, by 2030
- Accelerating emission reductions from road transport
- Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
- Achieving carbon pollution-free electricity by 2030 (for developed countries)
The Loss and Damage Fund Operationalised
A major early outcome of COP28 was the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, which had been agreed in principle at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh. On the first day of the conference, parties approved the recommendations of the transitional committee, establishing the fund's operational structure.
The World Bank was designated as the interim host of the fund for a four-year period, a decision that drew some criticism from developing countries and civil society organisations concerned about the Bank's governance structure and lending practices.
Initial pledges to the fund totalled approximately $700 million:
| Pledging Entity | Amount |
|---|---|
| UAE (host country) | $100 million |
| Germany | $100 million |
| Italy | ~$108 million |
| France | ~$109 million |
| United States | $17.5 million |
| Japan | $10 million |
| United Kingdom | ~$75 million (for loss and damage broadly) |
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Targets
The UAE Consensus included two specific, quantified global targets for 2030 that were widely welcomed by the renewable energy industry and climate analysts:
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Tripling renewable energy capacity: Increasing global installed renewable energy capacity from approximately 3,400 GW in 2022 to 11,000 GW by 2030. This target, first proposed by the COP28 presidency in collaboration with the IEA and IRENA, aligns with the IEA's Net Zero Roadmap scenario for limiting warming to 1.5°C.
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Doubling energy efficiency improvements: Increasing the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvement from approximately 2% to over 4% by 2030. This would require significant policy reforms, including building retrofits, industrial efficiency standards, and transportation electrification.
Over 130 countries signed a separate pledge endorsing these two targets during the conference, though the targets in the cover decision are non-binding.
Methane and Non-CO₂ Emissions
The agreement called for 'accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO₂ emissions, including in particular methane emissions, by 2030.' Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a warming potential approximately 80 times greater than CO₂ over a 20-year period.
The Global Methane Pledge, launched at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, now has over 150 participating countries committed to reducing collective methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. At COP28, several major oil and gas companies announced commitments to reduce methane emissions from their operations, and new satellite-based monitoring initiatives were launched to improve detection and verification of methane leaks.
The Fossil Fuel Debate
The inclusion of 'transitioning away from fossil fuels' in the final text was the subject of intense negotiation throughout the two-week conference. The COP28 presidency, led by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber — who also serves as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) — faced scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest, though he defended his role as bridging the gap between energy producers and climate advocates.
The original draft text released on 11 December was widely condemned for containing only 'options' on fossil fuel phase-out, with no firm commitment. After an outcry from climate-vulnerable nations, the EU, and civil society, a revised draft was released on 13 December containing the 'transitioning away' language.
The final text stopped short of calling for a 'phase-out' of fossil fuels, as many had demanded. It also included qualifiers — 'in a just, orderly and equitable manner' — and referenced 'transition fuels' such as natural gas, which some interpreted as a potential loophole.
Climate Finance
COP28 saw progress on several climate finance fronts, though significant gaps remain:
- Green Climate Fund (GCF): The second replenishment of the GCF raised approximately $3.5 billion in new pledges, bringing the total fund size to over $13 billion.
- Adaptation Fund: Pledges of approximately $188 million were made, though this falls short of the fund's needs.
- Loss and Damage Fund: Initial pledges of approximately $700 million (see above).
- New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG): Negotiations continued on the post-2025 climate finance target, with developing countries calling for a significant increase from the current $100 billion per year. The NCQG is to be finalised at COP29 in Baku in 2024.
Implications for Africa and Developing Nations
For African nations, COP28 produced mixed outcomes. The operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund was welcomed, but the initial pledges were seen as woefully inadequate relative to the scale of climate impacts already being experienced across the continent — from drought in the Horn of Africa to flooding in West Africa.
The renewable energy targets were broadly welcomed, with several African leaders noting the opportunity for the continent to leapfrog fossil fuel-dependent development through investment in solar, wind, and geothermal energy. However, concerns were raised about the adequacy of finance and technology transfer to support this transition.
The 'just, orderly and equitable' language in the fossil fuel transition clause was seen as important by developing countries, who argue that they should not be denied the energy access that wealthy nations enjoyed during their industrialisation. The challenge will be ensuring that the transition does not leave developing nations behind.
Sources:
- UNFCCC, COP28 UAE Consensus Finalised, 13 December 2023
- UNFCCC, First Global Stocktake Outcome, 13 December 2023
- European Commission, COP28: Key Outcomes and EU Position, December 2023
- IISD Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Summary of COP28, 13 December 2023
- UN News, COP28 Closes with Agreement to 'Transition Away' from Fossil Fuels, 13 December 2023
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