Rome, Italy · 5 August 2025
The Food and Agriculture Organization's Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) reported in its August 2025 bulletin that summer breeding had started slowly across the Sahel, with no major swarm formation detected despite heavy seasonal rains that created favourable conditions in Mauritania, Mali, and Niger. The assessment marked a cautious relief for a region that has repeatedly suffered devastating locust invasions, most recently during the 2019–2021 upsurge that engulfed the Horn of Africa and East Africa.
The bulletin, dated 5 August 2025, noted that following the end of the spring breeding season, locust activity in North African countries such as Tunisia and Morocco had decreased significantly. Groups of locusts that had persisted in these areas were expected to shift southward toward the Sahel for summer breeding, as is typical of the desert locust's seasonal migration pattern.
The Spring Threat in North Africa
In the first half of 2025, there was significant concern regarding a potential desert locust upsurge following heavy rainfall and favourable breeding conditions in North Africa. The FAO's DLIS issued regular bulletins and "caution" alerts during the spring, as active breeding was detected in Morocco and Tunisia — countries that do not typically experience major locust infestations but where unseasonal rains can create temporary breeding grounds.
By June and July 2025, locust outbreaks in North Africa began to decline significantly. Following the end of the spring breeding season, locust activity decreased, and the focus shifted to monitoring the potential movement of locust groups toward the Sahel, where the summer rainy season creates the warm, moist soil conditions ideal for egg-laying.
A July 2025 FAO bulletin reported that locust groups were persisting in some areas before shifting south for summer breeding — a pattern that warranted continued surveillance but did not indicate imminent swarm formation.
The Sahel: Favourable Conditions but No Swarms
Heavy rains in late July and August across parts of the Sahel — including Mauritania, Mali, and Niger — created conditions that could have supported summer breeding. The desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) requires specific environmental triggers to transition from the harmless solitary phase to the devastating gregarious phase that produces swarms: moist sandy soil for egg-laying, abundant green vegetation for nymphs, and sufficient breeding density to trigger the phase transformation.
Despite these conditions being present, field reports by August 2025 indicated that the situation remained largely calm across the Sahel. Summer breeding started slowly, and the critical mass of locusts needed to trigger gregarisation did not materialise.
The Fall Armyworm: A Persistent, Different Threat
While the desert locust situation remained calm, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) continued to pose a persistent and fundamentally different challenge across sub-Saharan Africa. Unlike the desert locust, which experiences episodic upsurges, the fall armyworm has become an established, endemic pest since its first detection on the continent in 2016.
Throughout 2025, the pest continued to threaten food security by damaging staple crops including maize, sorghum, and rice. FAO activities during this period focused on integrated pest management (IPM), monitoring, and farmer training rather than emergency outbreak alerts, reflecting the shift from emergency response to long-term management that accompanies the transition of an invasive species to established presence.
| Pest | Status (2025) | Management Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Desert Locust | Episodic — spring breeding declined, summer calm | Early warning, surveillance, targeted control |
| Fall Armyworm | Endemic — permanent constraint since 2016 | Integrated pest management, farmer training, monitoring |
Climate Change and the Expanding Locust Risk
The 2025 locust season unfolded against a backdrop of growing scientific concern about how climate variability is altering the geography and frequency of locust outbreaks. Warmer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expanding the areas suitable for desert locust breeding, while extreme weather events — such as the unusually heavy rains that hit North Africa in early 2025 — can create breeding opportunities in areas previously considered marginal.
The FAO has emphasised that climate-driven variability means the desert locust threat cannot be dismissed even in years when swarms do not form. The organisation maintains its monitoring infrastructure year-round, with the understanding that the transition from calm to crisis can occur within a single breeding cycle if conditions align.
Looking Ahead
By late 2025, field reports confirmed that the situation remained largely calm across the Sahel, though national authorities supported by the FAO maintained surveillance and control operations throughout the period to prevent escalation. The Mongabay news service reported in October 2025 that fears of major locust swarms had waned in the Sahel, but agencies were stepping up monitoring as a precaution.
The outcome of the 2025 season — vigilance without catastrophe — represents a success for the international early warning system, but it is not a signal to reduce investment in preparedness. As climate variability increases, the margin between a calm season and a devastating upsurge may narrow, making sustained surveillance capacity more critical than ever.
Sources
- FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Summer breeding starts slowly, 5 August 2025 —
- FAO Desert Locust Information Service, Groups persist before shifting south for summer breeding, July 2025 —
- Mongabay, Fears of major locust swarms wane in the Sahel but agencies step up monitoring, October 2025 —
- FAO, Fall Armyworm Technical Cooperation Programme —
- Frontiers in Agronomy, Fall armyworm management research, 2025 —
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
The collective editorial and research translation board of FIRAT, synthesising peer-reviewed evidence, policy briefs, and division milestones across our seven foundational research pillars.
