El Niño-Driven Drought Devastates Southern Africa as Six Nations Declare States of Emergency

Lusaka, Zambia · 29 February 2024 — President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia stood before the nation and declared a national disaster. The 2023–2024 rainy season, distorted by a powerful El Niño event, had delivered the worst drought in living memory to a region where approximately 70 per cent of the rural population depends on rain-fed agriculture for survival.

Zambia was the first. By mid-2024, five more Southern African nations — Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, and Zimbabwe — had followed suit, each declaring states of emergency or national disasters. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) subsequently launched a $5.5 billion regional humanitarian appeal to address what had become one of the most severe climate-driven agricultural crises in the region's recorded history.

The Scale of Agricultural Destruction

The drought's impact on staple crop production was catastrophic. In Zambia alone, approximately one million hectares of maize — out of 2.2 million planted — were severely damaged during the 2023/2024 growing season. The crisis affected 84 of the country's 116 districts across eight provinces, including Southern, Central, Eastern, North-Western, Western, Lusaka, Copperbelt, and Muchinga.

Across the region, the pattern repeated. Malawi, where maize constitutes the dietary backbone for the vast majority of households, saw widespread crop failures in the southern and central districts. Zimbabwe, already grappling with years of economic contraction and climate variability, recorded its worst harvest in decades. In Namibia and Botswana, livestock losses mounted as rangelands dried and water points failed.

The El Niño Mechanism

El Niño, the periodic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, disrupts global atmospheric circulation patterns. In Southern Africa, it typically suppresses rainfall during the October-to-March agricultural season, shifting precipitation away from the region. The 2023–2024 El Niño was among the strongest on record, compounding existing climate variability and long-term warming trends.

The drought arrived on top of already fragile conditions. Many Southern African countries had not fully recovered from the 2022–2023 La Niña-induced flooding and cyclone damage, which had destroyed infrastructure and displaced farming communities. The whipsaw from excessive rainfall to extreme dryness left agricultural systems with no buffer.

Anticipatory Action: A New Model of Response

One of the notable features of the 2024 response was the activation of anticipatory action programmes before the full impact of the drought materialised. The World Food Programme (WFP) and partner organisations had begun deploying pre-arranged financing and early warning systems in Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe as early as late 2023.

Over $14 million in anticipatory financing was disbursed to help communities prepare. Farmers received climate information and early warning messages that enabled them to make informed decisions about planting times, crop selection, and livestock management. The approach represented a shift from reactive humanitarian aid — which typically arrives after a crisis has peaked — toward proactive investment that reduces the ultimate cost of response.

Despite these efforts, the scale of the drought overwhelmed the capacity of anticipatory systems. The SADC's $5.5 billion regional appeal highlighted the enormous gap between available resources and the needs on the ground. Food aid, cash transfers, and access to clean water were required for millions of affected individuals across the six countries.

Hydropower and the Water-Energy Nexus

The drought's impact extended far beyond agriculture. Zambia and Zimbabwe share the Kariba Dam, the world's largest man-made reservoir by volume, which generates hydropower for both nations. As water levels plummeted, power generation capacity was severely curtailed, leading to prolonged electricity rationing that disrupted food storage, water pumping, and economic activity.

The interconnection between water, energy, and food security — the so-called water-energy-food nexus — was laid bare. Without reliable electricity, cold storage for perishable foods failed, irrigation pumps fell silent, and food processing facilities shut down. The cascading effects demonstrated that drought is not solely an agricultural emergency but a multi-sectoral crisis.

Long-Term Resilience and Climate-Smart Agriculture

In the wake of the crisis, experts and governments emphasised that climate variability is becoming the "new normal" for Southern Africa. The response strategy increasingly focuses on building long-term resilience rather than merely surviving the next shock:

• Drought-tolerant crop varieties: Distribution of improved maize and sorghum varieties bred to withstand water stress has been scaled up across the region. CGIAR research centres and national breeding programmes have released varieties that can maintain yields under moderate drought conditions.

• Improved irrigation systems: The crisis underscored the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture. Investment in small-scale irrigation, including solar-powered drip systems, has been identified as a priority for reducing dependence on rainfall.

• Agroforestry and soil conservation: Practices that improve soil moisture retention — such as conservation agriculture, mulching, and tree-based systems — are being promoted to buffer crops against dry spells.

• Livelihood diversification: Programmes encouraging farmers to diversify beyond single-crop maize reliance are being expanded, including livestock, horticulture, and off-farm income generation.

• Land restoration: Continental initiatives such as the Great Green Wall provide a framework for restoring degraded land to improve water retention and soil health, though implementation in Southern Africa has lagged behind the Sahel and Horn of Africa.

The Unresolved Challenge

Despite the massive humanitarian mobilisation and the growing adoption of climate-smart practices, the 2024 crisis laid bare a structural vulnerability. Southern Africa's agricultural calendar is overwhelmingly dependent on a single rainy season. When that season fails — as it did in 2023–2024 — there is no second chance until the following year. The region's smallholder farmers, who produce the majority of its food, operate with minimal safety margins: small landholdings, limited access to credit, and few storage facilities.

The SADC appeal noted that the funding gap remained enormous. International donors responded, but commitments fell short of the $5.5 billion target. The slow-motion nature of drought — compared to the sudden devastation of a cyclone or earthquake — means it attracts less media attention and slower political mobilisation, even as its cumulative human cost is often greater.

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Sources

• ReliefWeb. "Zambia: Drought Disaster — DR-2024-000018." February 2024.
• UN Zambia. "Information Update: Drought and Cholera Response — UN System." 2024.
• UNICEF Zambia. "United Nations Responds to Zambia's Drought Disaster and Emergency." March 2024.
• WFP. "Anticipatory Action in Southern Africa." 2024.
• SADC. "Regional Humanitarian Appeal." 2024.
• IFRC. "Emergency Appeal: Southern Africa Drought." 2024.
• CGIAR. "Climate-Smart Agriculture in Southern Africa." 2024.
• FAO. Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report. Q3 2024.