Brussels, Belgium · 25 August 2025
Hot and dry conditions across southern and eastern Europe have severely affected summer crops such as maize, sunflowers, and soybean, with persistent drought in Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, southern Ukraine, and Türkiye causing irreversible yield losses, particularly in rainfed agricultural areas. The assessment comes from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) MARS Bulletin, published on 25 August 2025, which monitors crop development and yield forecasts across Europe.
The bulletin describes a continent sharply divided by weather: while western and northern Europe experienced adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures that supported crop development, the south-eastern half faced a punishing combination of prolonged heat and rainfall deficit that devastated rainfed agriculture.
South-Eastern Europe: Heat and Dryness Threaten Yields
The JRC bulletin details country-by-country damage across the most affected regions:
In Romania and most of Bulgaria, hot and dry weather persisted through July and August, preventing summer crops from recovering from already mediocre conditions experienced earlier in the season. The report describes the damage as irreversible for rainfed maize, sunflower, and soybean.
In Greece, prolonged high temperatures severely reduced soil moisture to levels that irrigation could not compensate for. Yield expectations decreased sharply in eastern and northern regions, with the JRC noting that even irrigated fields struggled under the extreme heat.
In Türkiye, a long-lasting water deficit combined with very high temperatures was particularly unfavourable for summer crops, which suffered from limited irrigation capacity and heat stress during critical reproductive stages.
In Hungary and eastern Croatia, high temperatures and reduced precipitation put summer crops under stress, lowering national yield expectations. In southern and eastern Ukraine, summer crops continued to suffer from drought conditions that have persisted through the growing season.
Western Europe: A Different Story
In stark contrast, conditions in western and northern Europe were significantly more favourable. In Spain and Portugal, adequate rainfall supported summer crop development. In Italy, despite a heatwave during the second week of August, crops were already well developed and the impact was marginal. In Germany, favourable weather alleviated pest pressure, with negative impacts limited to sugar beet and potatoes in specific regions.
Rice yields across the EU were forecast to exceed the five-year average, driven by strong performance in Italy and Spain. Grasslands in northern Europe also performed well.
The winter crop season generally ended with a broadly positive outlook, confirming earlier forecasts. Only in the Baltic countries did excessive rainfall hamper the harvest.
The Compound Crisis Pattern
The JRC bulletin is the latest in a series of 2025 assessments that describe a "compound crisis" in global agriculture — where increasing frequencies of extreme weather events, including droughts, heatwaves, and flooding, are creating a new, more volatile era for food production.
The 2025 summer harvest was characterised by extreme regional disparities rather than a singular, uniform global crop failure. While parts of Europe experienced severe agricultural crises, other regions recorded historic or stable harvests. This fragmentation makes global food security planning more complex, as supply shortfalls in one region cannot always be offset by surpluses elsewhere due to trade barriers, logistics, and price dynamics.
Implications for Food Prices and Policy
The localised crop failures in south-eastern Europe have led to increased price volatility for food, particularly for fresh produce and grains in the most severely affected regions. Romania and Bulgaria, both significant grain producers, face reduced export capacity, which could affect regional supply chains in the Black Sea and beyond.
The JRC's MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) system provides monthly analyses on crop growth conditions and yield forecasts for the EU and neighbouring countries. The data feeds into the EU's Common Agricultural Policy planning and informs decisions on market intervention measures when warranted.
The bulletin also connects to the JRC's ASAP (Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production) system, which monitors global agricultural production hotspots in countries at risk of food insecurity — providing early warning of potential crises beyond Europe's borders.
Sources
- European Commission Joint Research Centre, Summer crops severely affected in the south and east, 25 August 2025 —
- European Commission Joint Research Centre, Summer drought reduces yields in south-east Europe, 22 September 2025 —
- JRC MARS Bulletin, August 2025 —
- JRC AGRI4CAST —
- JRC ASAP Anomaly Hotspots —
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
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