Rome, Italy · November 2025 — The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released its biannual Food Outlook report in November 2025, raising the forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to a record 3.003 billion metric tonnes — an upward revision from the 2.990 billion tonnes projected in the previous month's assessment. The increase was driven primarily by upward revisions to wheat output estimates.
The record production level was accompanied by expectations of record global cereal stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season, projected at 925.5 million tonnes. These increased stocks were largely attributed to expanded wheat inventories in China and India, as well as higher coarse grain stocks.
A Paradox of Plenty: Record Production Amid Persistent Hunger
The record cereal harvest underscores one of the most striking paradoxes of the global food system: the world produces more than enough food to feed its entire population, yet hundreds of millions remain hungry. According to the most recent estimates available in late 2025, approximately 645 million people faced hunger, and 2.1 billion experienced moderate or severe food insecurity.
The disconnect between production and access reflects the structural nature of food insecurity. Hunger is not primarily caused by insufficient food supply but by poverty, conflict, inequality, and disrupted supply chains. The record harvest provides a buffer against price shocks and supply disruptions, but it does not automatically translate into food reaching those who need it most.
Food Prices Continue Downward Trend
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of food commodities, continued its downward trend in November 2025, falling for the second consecutive month. The decline was driven by lower prices for vegetable oils, cereals, and dairy products, partially offset by slight increases in meat and sugar price indices.
The downward trend in food prices provided some relief for net food-importing developing countries, many of which had been hit hard by the food price inflation that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, the benefits of lower international prices do not always pass through to domestic markets, particularly in countries with weak infrastructure, high transport costs, or currency depreciation against the dollar.
Wheat: The Driver of Record Output
The upward revision to global cereal production was driven primarily by improved wheat output estimates. Favourable growing conditions in several major wheat-producing regions — including parts of Europe, North America, and Asia — contributed to higher-than-expected yields.
| Commodity | 2025 Forecast | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | Upward revision | Favourable conditions in Europe, North America, Asia |
| Maize | Stable to strong | Strong outlooks in key producing nations |
| Rice | Stable | Adequate monsoon in South Asia |
| Coarse grains | Higher stocks | Expanded inventories in China and India |
Maize outlooks remained stronger in several key producing nations, helping to buffer total cereal output. Rice production was stable, supported by adequate monsoon rainfall in South Asia, which is critical for the world's largest rice-consuming region.
Stocks and Trade: A Buffer Against Volatility
The projected record cereal stocks of 925.5 million tonnes represent an important buffer against market volatility. The stocks-to-use ratio — a key indicator of global food security — remains at comfortable levels, suggesting that the global cereal market is well-supplied.
However, the concentration of stocks in a few countries raises questions about the equity of global food availability. China and India together hold a significant share of global cereal stocks, meaning that stock levels in these two countries can disproportionately influence global market dynamics. For food-importing countries in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, access to affordable food depends less on global stock levels and more on trade flows, domestic prices, and purchasing power.
Geopolitical and Weather Risks
While the November 2025 Food Outlook painted a broadly positive picture of global food markets, the report also flagged significant risks that could disrupt this outlook. Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Sudan, the Middle East, and Ukraine, continued to pose risks to agricultural production, trade flows, and food access.
Weather risks remained a central concern. The emergence of El Niño conditions introduced uncertainty regarding rainfall patterns and temperatures in key producing regions. Flash droughts — rapidly developing drought events — continued to pose acute risks to vegetation health and seasonal yields. In the UK, severe drought and heatwaves in 2026 would later lead to projections of one of the smallest harvests on record, demonstrating how quickly the picture can change.
The Cost of a Healthy Diet
Beyond cereal production and food prices, the Food Outlook's broader analysis highlighted a persistent structural challenge: the high cost of a healthy diet. An estimated 2.7 billion people worldwide cannot afford a healthy diet — one that provides adequate calories and essential nutrients from diverse food groups. Even when calorie availability is sufficient at the national level, the lack of economic access to nutritious food continues to drive malnutrition, including stunting, wasting, and micronutrient deficiencies.
Looking Ahead
The FAO scheduled the next Food Outlook release for June 2026, which will incorporate updated production data, revised trade forecasts, and the latest food price trends. The June report will provide a mid-year assessment of the 2025/26 marketing season and early indications for the 2026/27 season.
For now, the November 2025 report offers a cautiously optimistic picture of global food markets: record production, comfortable stock levels, and declining prices. But the persistent gap between abundance and access remains the defining challenge of global food security — one that no harvest, however record-breaking, can resolve alone.
Sources
- FAO, Food Outlook, November 2025.
- FAO, Food Outlook archive.
- ThePoultrySite, Global Food Prices Fall Again in November — FAO, December 2025.
- FAO, World Food Situation: Current Situation.
- WHO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026.
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