Kigali, Rwanda · 21 March 2018 — In a ceremony that African Union officials described as one of the most significant undertakings in the organisation's history, 44 of the 55 African Union member states signed the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), committing to create a single continental market for goods and services across the continent.
The signing took place during the 10th Extraordinary Session of the African Union Assembly, hosted by President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, who was serving as Chairperson of the African Union at the time. The agreement aims to create a single market of over 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of more than $2 trillion, making it the largest free trade area in the world since the establishment of the World Trade Organization.
A Vision Four Decades in the Making
President Kagame, in his opening remarks, framed the agreement as the realisation of a long-held continental aspiration. "The Continental Free Trade Area is the culmination of a vision set forth nearly 40 years ago in the Lagos Plan of Action, adopted by Heads of State in 1980," he said. He described the signing as more than a ceremonial act: "This is not just a signing ceremony. Today's deliberations are critically important as we chart the next steps on our journey towards the Africa we want."
The AfCFTA is a flagship project of Agenda 2063, the African Union's strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent over a 50-year period. The agreement's core objectives include creating a single liberalised market for goods and services, facilitating the free movement of capital and people, and accelerating the establishment of the Continental Customs Union.
Intra-African Trade: The Structural Challenge
At the time of signing, intra-African trade stood at approximately 16% of the continent's total trade — significantly lower than intra-regional trade in Europe (approximately 60%) and Asia (approximately 50%). The UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), which provided technical support for the negotiations, estimated that the AfCFTA could boost intra-African trade by 52% by 2022, and by as much as 70% when tariff elimination is fully implemented.
The agreement's design reflects this complexity. In addition to the main AfCFTA agreement, the summit produced two complementary instruments: the Kigali Declaration, signed by 43 countries, which reaffirmed political commitment to the initiative, and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, signed by 27 countries, which aims to facilitate the movement of people across borders — a critical enabler for a functioning continental market.
Notable Absences and the Path to Ratification
Two of Africa's largest economies — Nigeria and South Africa — were among the countries that did not sign the agreement at the Kigali summit. Nigeria's then-President Muhammadu Buhari cited the need for further domestic consultation, while South Africa signed the Kigali Declaration but delayed signing the main agreement pending parliamentary approval. South Africa subsequently signed the agreement in July 2018 during the AU summit in Nouakchott, Mauritania.
The agreement required ratification by at least 22 member states to enter into force. This threshold was reached in April 2019, when The Gambia became the 22nd country to deposit its instrument of ratification. The AfCFTA officially entered into force on 30 May 2019, and trading under the agreement was initially scheduled to begin on 1 July 2020, though the start of trade was subsequently delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Economic Projections and Development Implications
UNCTAD, the UN Conference on Trade and Development, projected that the AfCFTA could increase Africa's exports by approximately $560 billion, with the majority of gains accruing from intra-African trade in manufactured goods. The agreement is expected to particularly benefit small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for the majority of business activity on the continent but have historically faced significant barriers to cross-border trade.
| Metric | Pre-AfCFTA (2018) | Projected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Intra-African trade share | ~16% of total trade | +52% by 2022 (UNECA estimate) |
| Combined market size | 1.2 billion people | Largest free trade area globally |
| Combined GDP | ~$2.5 trillion | Projected export increase of ~$560 billion |
| Signatories at Kigali | 44 of 55 AU members | 54 of 55 by 2023 |
The Road Ahead
President Kagame emphasised that the signing was a beginning, not an end. He described the milestone as "an indication of how much is possible when we work together" and urged leaders to maintain momentum on other Agenda 2063 flagship projects.
The UNCTAD Secretary-General at the time, Mukhisa Kituyi, echoed this sentiment, noting that "the task ahead is great" and that the real work of implementation — harmonising tariffs, establishing rules of origin, and building the institutional architecture for continental trade — would require sustained political commitment and technical capacity.
The Kigali signing represented a convergence of political will, technical preparation, and continental aspiration that had been building for decades. Whether the agreement delivers on its transformative potential will depend on the pace and depth of implementation in the years ahead — particularly on the willingness of member states to dismantle non-tariff barriers, invest in trade-enabling infrastructure, and develop the productive capacity needed to make intra-African trade a pillar of the continent's economic future.
Sources:
- UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), "African Leaders Agreed to Landmark Deal Paving Way for African Continental Free Trade Area," March 2018
- UNCTAD, "The Task Ahead Is Great, Say African Leaders as Continent-Wide Free Trade Deal Is Signed," March 2018
- IISD, "Agreement to Create the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Signed in Rwanda," April 2018
- KT Press, "This Is Not Just a Signing Ceremony — Kagame," March 2018
- African Union, 10th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly, Kigali, Rwanda, 21 March 2018
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
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