Across Sub-Saharan Africa · August 2022 — A global fertilizer crisis, triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war and soaring energy prices, has doubled or tripled input costs for farmers worldwide, with particularly devastating consequences for smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa who depend on imported fertilizers to maintain already low crop yields.
Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium fertilizers. The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to sanctions, export restrictions, and disrupted supply chains that drastically tightened global fertilizer availability. Simultaneously, the war caused a global energy crisis, sending natural gas prices — the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production — to record highs and making production prohibitively expensive in many regions.
Why Fertilizer Matters for African Food Security
Sub-Saharan African soils are among the most degraded in the world. Decades of continuous cultivation without adequate nutrient replenishment have left many soils critically deficient in nitrogen, phosphorus, and organic matter. Unlike farmers in Europe or North America, who apply fertilizers at rates of 100–200 kilograms per hectare, African smallholders typically apply only 8–15 kilograms per hectare — far below the level needed to maintain soil fertility and achieve productive yields.
This low application rate means that even modest reductions in fertilizer use can have outsized effects on harvests. When prices surged in 2022, many smallholders were forced to make a brutal calculation: buy less fertilizer and accept lower yields, or borrow money to purchase inputs at inflated prices and risk falling into debt if harvests or market prices disappoint.
The Natural Gas Connection
The production of nitrogen-based fertilizers — including urea, ammonia, and ammonium nitrate — relies heavily on natural gas as both a feedstock and an energy source. The Haber-Bosch process, which synthesizes ammonia from atmospheric nitrogen and hydrogen derived from natural gas, accounts for the vast majority of nitrogen fertilizer produced globally.
When natural gas prices spiked in 2022, several European fertilizer producers suspended or reduced operations because production costs exceeded selling prices. This further constrained global supply, pushing prices even higher. The cascading effect — from energy markets to fertilizer production to farm gate prices — illustrated the deep interdependence of energy and food systems.
Impact on Crop Yields and Food Production
Faced with high costs, many farmers reduced fertilizer application rates or skipped applications entirely. This led to lower crop yields for major staples including maize, rice, wheat, and sorghum. In countries where fertilizer subsidy programmes buffer smallholders from global price shocks — such as Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia — government budgets were stretched to breaking point as subsidy costs ballooned.
The yield reductions contributed to the global food price inflation observed throughout 2022 and into 2023. In Africa, the effects were compounded by the drought in the Horn of Africa, conflict in the Sahel, and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
| Fertilizer Type | Pre-Crisis Price (2020) | Peak Price (2022) | Primary Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | ~$250/ton | ~$700–900/ton | Nitrogen source for maize, rice |
| DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) | ~$300/ton | ~$900–1,100/ton | Phosphorus for cereals, legumes |
| NPK Blends | ~$350/ton | ~$800–1,200/ton | Multi-nutrient for diverse crops |
| Muriate of Potash (MOP) | ~$200/ton | ~$600–800/ton | Potassium for root crops, vegetables |
Note: Prices are approximate global benchmark ranges and varied significantly by region, contract type, and timing.
Coping Strategies and Adaptation
Farmers and governments across Africa adopted various strategies to cope with the crisis:
- Increased use of organic fertilizers: Some farmers turned to compost, manure, and green manure cover crops to partially substitute for chemical fertilizers. While beneficial for long-term soil health, organic inputs typically cannot match the immediate nutrient delivery of synthetic fertilizers.
- Expanded subsidy programmes: Several governments increased fertilizer subsidy budgets, though this strained public finances and was unsustainable in many cases.
- Shift to less fertilizer-intensive crops: Some farmers switched from maize to crops such as cassava, sweet potato, or legumes that require fewer external inputs, though this can have nutritional trade-offs.
- Precision agriculture and micro-dosing: Programmes promoted micro-dosing — applying small, targeted amounts of fertilizer near plant roots — to maximize the efficiency of limited fertilizer supplies.
The Micro-Dosing Approach
Micro-dosing, developed and promoted by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and partners, involves applying just 6 grams of fertilizer per planting hole — roughly one bottle-cap full — rather than broadcasting fertilizer across an entire field. This technique can reduce fertilizer use by up to 75 percent while maintaining or even increasing yields, making it particularly relevant during periods of high prices and limited supply.
Long-Term Implications
The 2022–2023 fertilizer crisis reshuffled global trade flows, with new suppliers from the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia gaining market share as Russian exports declined. For Africa, the crisis underscored the urgent need to develop domestic fertilizer production capacity, improve soil health management, and diversify nutrient sources.
The crisis also accelerated interest in alternative nutrient sources, including biofertilizers, nitrogen-fixing cover crops, and improved soil management practices that reduce reliance on synthetic inputs. While these approaches cannot fully replace mineral fertilizers in the short term, they represent important components of a more resilient and sustainable agricultural input strategy for the continent.
Sources
- World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets (2022) —
- FAO, The Importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for Global Agricultural Markets and the Risks Associated with the Current Conflict —
- IFDC (International Fertilizer Development Center), Fertilizer Statistics Reports —
- AFAP (African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership), Fertilizer Market Monitoring —
- ICRISAT, Micro-Dosing Fertilizer Technology —
- AfricaFertilizer.org, Fertilizer Price and Consumption Data —
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
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