Nairobi, Kenya · 28 November 2022 — The Horn of Africa is enduring its worst drought in at least 40 years, with five consecutive failed rainy seasons pushing more than 36 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia into a spiralling humanitarian emergency that UN agencies warn could tip into outright famine without sustained international intervention.
The crisis, driven by the most severe La Niña event in 70 years, has destroyed pastoralist livelihoods across the region. Over 8.9 million livestock have perished from lack of water and pasture, stripping families of their primary source of food, income, and cultural identity. Milk production — a critical nutritional mainstay for children in pastoralist communities — has collapsed alongside the herd losses, deepening an already severe malnutrition crisis.
A Compounded Crisis
The drought did not strike in isolation. Its impact has been amplified by a convergence of shocks that humanitarian agencies describe as a "compounded crisis." The region was still reeling from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic when Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent global food and fuel prices soaring. Many Horn of Africa nations depend heavily on imported wheat and cooking oil from Ukraine and Russia, and the resulting price spikes hit families already struggling with depleted incomes.
Protracted conflicts in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia further constrained both livelihoods and humanitarian access, making it harder for aid agencies to reach the most affected populations. The combination of climate extremes, economic shocks, and insecurity created what the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) termed a "polycrisis" — multiple overlapping emergencies that compound each other's effects.
Livestock Losses and Pastoralist Collapse
The livestock figures tell a stark story. In Somalia alone, an estimated 3 million livestock died between mid-2021 and late 2022. In Ethiopia's Somali and Oromia regions, and across Kenya's arid and semi-arid counties, pastoralists reported losses of 40 to 70 percent of their herds in the worst-affected areas.
The Response: FAO and WFP on the Front Lines
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have led the international response, operating with complementary but distinct mandates.
WFP has focused on large-scale food and nutrition assistance, providing emergency rations, cash transfers, and specialized nutritious foods for the treatment and prevention of malnutrition, particularly among children and pregnant and breastfeeding women. The agency's regional drought response plan covered May through December 2022 and was subsequently extended into 2023.
FAO has concentrated on safeguarding rural livelihoods — distributing drought-tolerant seeds, tools, and veterinary support to prevent the total collapse of food production systems. The agency's approach emphasizes keeping pastoralists on their land with their remaining animals, rather than allowing displacement to urban centres, which would deepen long-term dependency on humanitarian aid.
| Agency | Primary Focus | Key Interventions |
|---|---|---|
| WFP | Food and nutrition assistance | Emergency rations, cash transfers, malnutrition treatment |
| FAO | Livelihood protection | Seeds, tools, veterinary support, pastoralist retention |
| WHO | Health emergency | Outbreak surveillance, health system support |
| UNICEF | Child protection | Malnutrition treatment, water and sanitation |
Early Warning and the Hunger Hotspots Reports
Both agencies have utilized the FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots early warning system to provide data-driven alerts to the international community. These reports, issued quarterly, identify countries at risk of deteriorating acute food insecurity and advocate for what the agencies call a "no regrets" approach — acting early on warning signals rather than waiting for famine declarations, which by definition arrive only after catastrophic levels of mortality have already been reached.
The November 2022 revision of the Horn of Africa Drought Regional Humanitarian Overview called for billions of dollars in funding to cover life-saving relief, livelihood support, and resilience-building activities through 2023.
Rains Return, But Recovery Remains Distant
Although rains improved in some areas during the March–May 2023 season, the systemic damage caused by the multi-year drought means recovery will be long and difficult. Pastoralists who lost their herds cannot simply resume their livelihoods because pasture returned. Crop farmers who missed multiple planting seasons have depleted seed stocks and taken on debt. Displaced families face uncertain prospects for return.
The 2020–2023 drought episode in the Horn of Africa stands as a case study in how climate change is intensifying and extending drought cycles in vulnerable regions, and how the compounding of climate, conflict, and economic shocks can overwhelm even well-established humanitarian response systems.
Sources
- ReliefWeb, Horn of Africa Drought: Regional Humanitarian Overview and Call to Action (Revised 28 November 2022) —
- WFP, Regional Drought Response Plan for the Horn of Africa (May–December 2022) —
- WFP, Regional Drought Response Plan for the Horn of Africa 2023 —
- WHO, Drought and Food Insecurity in the Greater Horn of Africa —
- FEWS NET, Horn of Africa Special Report —
- IOM, East and Horn of Africa Regional Drought Response 2023 —
- UK Parliament Lords Library, Horn of Africa: Projections of a Famine in 2023 —
FIRAT Editorial Board
Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
The collective editorial and research translation board of FIRAT, synthesising peer-reviewed evidence, policy briefs, and division milestones across our seven foundational research pillars.
