Khartoum, Sudan · 30 November 2025 — For the second time in less than a year, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee has confirmed that famine is occurring in parts of Sudan. As of September 2025, El Fasher town in North Darfur and the besieged town of Kadugli in South Kordofan were officially classified in Famine (IPC Phase 5) with reasonable evidence. These conditions were expected to persist through January 2026.
The IPC analysis, covering the period from September 2025 to May 2026 and issued on 30 November 2025, paints a devastating picture of a country where protracted civil war has collapsed livelihoods, destroyed productive infrastructure, and severed humanitarian access to the populations most in need.
Famine Confirmed in Two Locations
The classification of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in El Fasher and Kadugli represents the most severe category of food insecurity on the IPC scale, characterised by a total collapse of livelihoods, starvation, extremely high levels of malnutrition, and death. Conditions in the besieged town of Dilling in South Kordofan are estimated to be similar to those in Kadugli, though the lack of data prevented formal IPC classification of that area.
The catastrophic food security outcomes are mirrored in the nutrition situation. Over 60 percent of localities covered by SMART surveys between January and July 2025 showed Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates above 15 percent, with four localities in Greater Darfur showing prevalence around or above the 30 percent Famine threshold. More than 56,000 Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) admissions were recorded in September 2025 alone, underscoring the depth of the crisis and the strain on already overstretched nutrition services.
Regional Disparities in Food Security
The IPC analysis reveals stark regional contrasts. While some areas saw modest improvements, others deteriorated further:
| Region | Situation | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Khartoum, Al Jazirah, Sennar | Gradual stabilisation | Reduced conflict, improved humanitarian access since April 2025 |
| Greater Darfur | Further deterioration | Active conflict, restricted access |
| Greater Kordofan | Further deterioration | Sieges, displacement |
| North Darfur (El Fasher) | Famine (IPC Phase 5) | Siege conditions, collapse of services |
Compared to the previous IPC analysis (December 2024 – May 2025), the number of people facing IPC Phase 3 or above declined by 3.4 million — a 6-percentage-point drop. However, this improvement was largely concentrated in Khartoum, Al Jazirah, and Sennar states, where reduced conflict and improved humanitarian access since April 2025 allowed gradual stabilisation. In contrast, most states in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan experienced further deterioration due to active conflict and restricted access.
In September 2025, a staggering 3.6 million people in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan faced Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity, and nearly 370,000 faced Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) conditions — accounting for 98 percent of the total population in this phase nationwide.
Displacement and the Fall of El Fasher
Newly displaced populations from El Fasher — particularly children — have been arriving in neighbouring areas such as Tawila in acutely malnourished condition, reflecting prolonged deprivation before and during transit. Since 26 October 2025, the change in control of El Fasher town resulted in widespread human suffering and further displacement towards Tawila and other neighbouring areas, exacerbating humanitarian needs.
The uncertainty surrounding the evolution of conflict heightens the risk of famine, particularly in 20 areas expected to receive displaced populations across North, South, and East Darfur, as well as West and South Kordofan.
Projections: A Fragile Post-Harvest Reprieve
Favourable agroclimatic conditions are expected to seasonally improve the food security situation after the harvest. This, together with sustained humanitarian food assistance, is projected to result in a decline in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above to 19.2 million (40 percent of the population) between October 2025 and January 2026.
However, in North Darfur and the Western Nuba Mountains, gains from the harvest will remain limited due to conflict and insecurity. Displaced populations across the country, as well as returnees — especially in Al Jazirah, Sennar, and Khartoum — are also unlikely to benefit meaningfully from the harvest due to the loss of their productive assets.
During the post-harvest and pre-lean season (February – May 2026), acute food insecurity is projected to worsen slightly as food stocks deplete and conflict intensifies along frontlines. An estimated 19.1 million people (41 percent) are expected to face IPC Phase 3 or above conditions, including 4.9 million people (11 percent) in IPC Phase 4 and 146,000 people in IPC Phase 5.
The Driver: Protracted Civil War
The crisis is largely driven by the protracted civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, which began in April 2023. The conflict has led to a total collapse of many livelihoods, damaged critical infrastructure, and severely hampered both commercial trade and humanitarian operations. Much of the country's productive infrastructure — including irrigation systems, storage facilities, and market networks — has been damaged or destroyed.
The IPC analysis emphasises that unimpeded humanitarian access to implement a large-scale, multi-sector response — with commensurate funding — is urgently needed to prevent further starvation and death. Yet humanitarian financing for food sectors has been declining globally, even as needs continue to grow.
Sources
- IPC Global Initiative, Sudan: IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, September 2025 – May 2026, issued 30 November 2025. Available via ReliefWeb:
- UNICEF, Famine conditions confirmed in Sudan's El Fasher and Kadugli as hunger and malnutrition soar, press release.
- FEWS NET, Sudan Food Security Outlook.
- WFP, Sudan Emergency.
FIRAT Editorial Board
Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
The collective editorial and research translation board of FIRAT, synthesising peer-reviewed evidence, policy briefs, and division milestones across our seven foundational research pillars.
