Lusaka, January 2025 — As Southern Africa entered the peak of the 2024–2025 lean season, the region found itself at the frontline of a deepening food security crisis driven by one of the most severe El Niño-induced droughts in decades. By early 2025, over 26 million people across the region were estimated to be at risk of acute hunger, with six nations — Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe — having declared national drought disasters.
The crisis traces its origins to the 2023–2024 El Niño event, which caused one of the driest mid-seasons in over 40 years. February 2024 was recorded as the driest month in several Southern African countries since 1981, devastating rain-fed agriculture that accounts for the livelihoods of approximately 70% of the region's smallholder farmers.
The El Niño Devastation
The 2023–2024 growing season was characterised by a catastrophic combination of delayed rainfall onset, prolonged dry spells during the critical January–February maize tasseling period, and above-normal temperatures. The result was widespread crop failure across the region's maize belt, the staple food crop that feeds the majority of Southern Africa's population.
The drought affected 84 of Zambia's 117 districts, impacting approximately 9.8 million people. President Hakainde Hichilema declared a national disaster and emergency in February 2024, describing the crisis as a threat to national food security. Similar declarations followed in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Lesotho, Botswana, and Namibia.
Country-Level Impact
| Country | Declaration Date | Key Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Zambia | February 2024 | 84 of 117 districts affected; 9.8 million people impacted; nearly half of maize fields destroyed |
| Zimbabwe | 2024 | Severe maize deficits; over 7 million facing food insecurity |
| Malawi | 2024 | Millions requiring emergency food assistance; severe crop losses |
| Lesotho | 2024 | National disaster declared; agricultural production severely reduced |
| Botswana | 2024 | Drought disaster declared; significant livestock losses |
| Namibia | 2024 | Drought emergency; crop and pasture failures widespread |
The Lean Season Crisis
The period from October 2024 through March 2025 represented the peak lean season — the time between harvests when household food stocks are typically at their lowest. In Zambia alone, an estimated 5.8 million people were projected to face acute levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or worse) during this period. The crisis was driven not only by the drought but also by high food prices, economic instability, and concurrent disease outbreaks, including a cholera epidemic that further strained household resources.
A $197 million flash appeal was launched for Zambia to provide life-saving assistance, including emergency cash transfers and food distributions. However, humanitarian funding shortfalls have constrained the response across the region.
Drivers and Compounding Factors
The food security crisis in Southern Africa is driven by multiple converging factors:
Climate Shocks
The El Niño event disrupted the region's rainfall patterns, causing both drought in some areas and destructive flooding in others. The variability has made traditional farming calendars unreliable, with farmers unable to predict planting and harvesting windows.
Economic Pressures
High food inflation, currency depreciation, and the rising cost of agricultural inputs such as fertilizer have hampered farmers' ability to recover and invest in their land. In Zimbabwe, inflation has eroded household purchasing power, while in Zambia, the kwacha's depreciation has increased the cost of imported food and agricultural inputs.
Structural Vulnerability
Agriculture in Southern Africa remains heavily reliant on rainfall, with less than 5% of arable land under irrigation in most countries. Despite the availability of drought-tolerant maize varieties and climate-smart agricultural practices, adoption rates remain limited by cost, access, and extension service gaps.
Humanitarian Response
The World Food Programme (WFP), FAO, and numerous NGOs have been operating emergency food distribution, cash transfer, and livelihood protection programmes across the affected countries. However, the response has been hampered by funding shortfalls. The WFP reported that its Southern Africa drought response was significantly underfunded, forcing reductions in ration sizes and beneficiary numbers in some countries.
The crisis has also been compounded by the broader global humanitarian funding environment. With the United States suspending most international assistance in early 2025 and other donors announcing budget cuts, the resources available for the Southern Africa response have diminished precisely when needs are highest.
Looking Toward Recovery
By the second half of 2025, the acute phase of the food insecurity crisis began to subside following a shift to La Niña conditions, which brought more favourable rainfall and enabled a robust 2025 harvest. South Africa's maize harvest saw a significant recovery, with production reaching record highs in the 2025–2026 season, helping to stabilise regional grain prices.
However, the region continues to grapple with the structural impacts of recent climate shocks. High levels of malnutrition persist, economic instability remains, and the need for greater investment in irrigation and climate-resilient agriculture has become more urgent than ever.
Sources
- FAO Drought Portal, Zambia national case study
- UNICEF Zambia Country Office, Humanitarian Situation Report, 2025
- UN OCHA, Zambia Revised Drought Flash Appeal, 2024–2025
- IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, Zambia, 2024–2025
- ReliefWeb, Southern Africa drought situation reports, 2024–2025
- World Vision International, Southern Africa drought response reports, 2025
FIRAT Editorial Board
Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
The collective editorial and research translation board of FIRAT, synthesising peer-reviewed evidence, policy briefs, and division milestones across our seven foundational research pillars.
