Washington, DC – September 12, 2026
The U.S. Department of Agriculture delivered a mixed picture of American agriculture in its September forecasts, lowering corn yield estimates while delivering a record soybean crop that exceeded analyst expectations.
USDA released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday, September 11. The reports showed the U.S. corn crop will be smaller than previously estimated due to weather impacts, while soybean production is forecast at a record 4.535 billion bushels.
Corn Yield Cut by Heat and Dry Conditions
The national corn yield was projected at 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from the August estimate of 180.7. Total production is now pegged at 15.8 billion bushels, a reduction of 213 million bushels from August.
The yield cut reflects dry conditions in key growing states during pollination and grain fill. Harvested acres were trimmed slightly to 88.5 million from August's 88.6 million.
Despite the production cut, corn ending stocks remain higher than the trade consensus. USDA projected 1.567 billion bushels in ending stocks, versus an average trade survey of 1.533 billion bushels from the Sept. 10 DTN/Dow Jones and Reuters surveys.
"USDA largely confirmed the expected corn crop reduction, but the demand-side adjustment softened the tightening," said Rhett Montgomery, DTN Lead Analyst, in a report published Friday morning.
Soybeans Defy Bearish Expectations
Soybean production came in at a record 4.535 billion bushels, exceeding trade expectations by 43 million bushels. The national yield was raised to 52.8 bushels per acre, up from 52.7 in August and above the trade average of 52.5.
Harvested soybean acreage was raised 100,000 acres to 85.9 million. USDA also increased export forecasts by 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion, pulling ending stocks down to 310 million from August's 320 million.
"The market was positioned for a smaller crop and got a bigger one. Soybean production came in 34 million bushels above consensus, with carryout above both surveys," noted the Ag Optimus September WASDE scorecard published Friday afternoon.
Wheat numbers were left unchanged from August, with yield at 47.8 bushels per acre, production at 1.531 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 717 million.
Price Expectations Rise for Corn
With supply tightened and demand adjustments lagging, USDA raised the season-average farm price for corn to $4.80 per bushel, up 30 cents from August's $4.50 forecast. Soybean prices were raised to $12.00 per bushel, up 60 cents from August's $11.40.
Farmers across the Midwest have begun harvesting corn, with only 5 percent of the crop harvested as of the September 11 report date compared to the five-year average of 3 percent. The early harvest pace suggests favorable conditions for crop movement despite lower overall yield estimates.
Global Context and Export Markets
The WASDE report also projected 2026/27 world corn production at 1.191 billion metric tons, with U.S. production accounting for roughly 13 percent of the global total. Brazil is forecast to produce 186 million metric tons, while Argentina is projected at 50 million metric tons. Chinese imports are estimated at 115 million metric tons.
For soybeans, the U.S. remains the world's largest producer and exporter. Global soybean production is forecast at 432 million metric tons, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 10 percent of world production. Brazilian production remains the primary competitor, projected at 160 million metric tons.
Regional Production Impacts
Corn production estimates varied by state. Iowa, the largest producing state, is not separately detailed in the WASDE summary but accounts for approximately 18 percent of national corn production. Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana follow as the next largest producers.
Soybean production is concentrated in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, and Ohio, with Illinois leading at approximately 15 percent of national output.
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release the final production estimates in December, which historically show revisions of plus or minus 2-3 percent from the September forecasts.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, September Crop Production and WASDE Reports, September 11, 2026. DTN, AgWeb, Ag Optimus, September 11, 2026.
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
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