Geneva, Switzerland · 10 January 2025 — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has officially confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with global average temperatures reaching approximately 1.55°C above the pre-industrial 1850–1900 baseline. The confirmation, based on a consolidated analysis of six leading international datasets, makes 2024 the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold established in the Paris Agreement.
Six Datasets, One Verdict
The WMO's determination drew on temperature records from six independent datasets maintained by leading climate institutions: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, the University of California Berkeley, the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), and the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Despite methodological differences, all six datasets converged on the same conclusion: 2024 surpassed 2023 as the warmest year in the 175-year observational record.
What Does Breaching 1.5°C Mean?
The 1.5°C threshold is central to the Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21 in 2015, where 196 parties agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to restrict it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo was careful to distinguish between a single-year breach and a long-term failure of the Paris goals.
"This is a wake-up call, not a death sentence for the Paris Agreement. The 1.5°C target refers to long-term warming averaged over 20 or 30 years, not a single year. But every fraction of a degree matters, and we are seeing the consequences of inaction in real time — record floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines long-term warming as an average over a 20–30 year period. A single year above 1.5°C does not constitute a breach of the Paris target, but it signals that the world is dangerously close to crossing that line permanently.
Drivers of the Record
Several factors contributed to the exceptional warmth of 2024:
| Factor | Effect on Global Temperature |
|---|---|
| El Niño (2023–2024) | Added approximately 0.15–0.20°C to global average |
| Greenhouse gas accumulation | Continued rise in atmospheric CO₂, reaching ~422 ppm |
| Ocean heat content | Record high, with ocean absorbing ~90% of excess heat |
| Reduced aerosol pollution | Shipping fuel regulations reduced cooling sulfur particles |
The El Niño event that developed in 2023 and peaked in early 2024 amplified the underlying warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions. However, even as El Niño transitioned toward neutral and then La Niña conditions later in 2024, temperatures remained exceptionally elevated — underscoring that the long-term warming signal now dominates natural variability.
Extreme Weather Impacts
The record warmth of 2024 was accompanied by devastating extreme weather events across the globe:
- Floods: Catastrophic flooding displaced millions in Central Europe, South Asia, and West and Central Africa. The Sahel experienced some of its worst flooding in decades.
- Heatwaves: Extreme heat griapped the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States, and parts of East Asia. Saudi Arabia recorded temperatures exceeding 50°C during the Hajj pilgrimage, resulting in hundreds of deaths.
- Wildfires: Unprecedented fires burned across the Amazon, Canada, and the western United States, with smoke affecting air quality across entire continents.
- Tropical cyclones: Intensified storms struck the Caribbean, the Philippines, and the southeastern United States, causing billions in damages.
The UN Secretary-General's Response
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the confirmation as further proof that the world is on a dangerous trajectory.
"Individual years pushing past 1.5°C do not mean the Paris Agreement is dead, but they are a loud alarm bell. We must treat this as a five-alarm fire, not a cause for despair. The solution is well known: cut emissions, transition to renewables, and protect the vulnerable."
Guterres called on all countries to submit enhanced nationally determined contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, with 1.5°C-aligned targets and concrete implementation plans.
The Decade Ahead
The WMO's State of the Global Climate 2024 report, published in conjunction with the temperature confirmation, documented a cascade of climate indicators reaching record levels: ocean heat content, sea level rise, glacier retreat, and Antarctic sea ice extent.
The confirmation sets the stage for a critical period in climate diplomacy. Countries are due to submit updated NDCs in 2025, and the COP30 summit in Belém will mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. The gap between current emissions trajectories and the 1.5°C pathway remains vast — the United Nations Environment Programme's 2024 Emissions Gap Report estimated that global emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 to stay on the 1.5°C path.
Sources:
- WMO, WMO Confirms 2024 Warmest Year on Record (wmo.int, 10 January 2025)
- UN News, WMO Confirms 2024 as Warmest Year (news.un.org, January 2025)
- UN Secretary-General Statement on 2024 Temperature Confirmation (un.org)
- UNEP, 2024 Emissions Gap Report (unep.org)
- IPCC, Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch)
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
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