August Sets New Joint Heat Record as Global Temperatures Surge Past 1.5°C Threshold

Brussels, Belgium – September 10, 2026

The European Union's climate monitoring service announced Thursday that August 2026 has been confirmed as the joint-hottest month ever recorded in human history, tying with July 2023 as global average surface air temperatures reached 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time since November 2025.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), released its monthly climate bulletin confirming that last month's average global air temperature was 16.96°C (62.53°F), just 0.01°C warmer than the previous single-month record set in July 2023. Given the narrow margin of difference, officials are treating the two months as joint record-holders.

The record-breaking heat reflects a convergence of long-term climate change driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and a rapidly intensifying El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reported this week that the current El Niño is expected to peak later this year at an intensity never observed in the modern era, with a 75% chance of exceeding the strength of previous major El Niño events dating back to 1950.

Regional Impacts Already Visible

The influence of the combined warming trends is being felt across multiple continents. In western Europe, the summer months of June through August were confirmed as the warmest on record, surpassing the long-standing benchmark set during the devastating 2003 European heatwave. The continent's EuroMomo monitoring platform estimated that between mid-July and mid-August, Europe experienced more than 32,000 excess deaths attributed to extreme heat conditions.

The United States also experienced record-breaking heat, with the contiguous 48 states averaging 74.37°F (23.54°C) for the summer of 2026, according to NOAA. This exceeded the benchmark set during the 1936 Dust Bowl summer, which had stood as the hottest U.S. summer on record for more than 90 years.

In Indonesia, the intensifying El Niño has created conditions favorable for severe wildfires. Data from the Global Fire Emissions Database shows that as of September 7, fires in Indonesia had already produced 76 million tonnes of carbon emissions in 2026, putting the year on trajectory to match the intensity of the 2015 fire season that generated 333 million tonnes of carbon across 2.6 million hectares of burned land.

Ocean Temperatures Hit Record Highs

Perhaps most alarming to climate scientists, global sea surface temperatures in August reached their highest levels ever measured. The average temperature for extra-polar oceans (between 60°S and 60°N) was 21.07°C, surpassing the previous August record of 20.98°C set in 2023. The daily global sea surface temperature over extra-polar oceans hit 21.11°C, setting a new record.

Over 90 percent of excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the world's oceans over the past several decades. While this has slowed atmospheric warming, it has placed severe stress on marine ecosystems, coral reefs, and coastal communities dependent on healthy ocean systems.

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Follows Warming Trend

Consistent with elevated global temperatures, sea ice extents at both poles registered among their lowest levels for the month in the satellite record. Arctic sea ice extent in August 2026 ranked as the 12th lowest in the 48-year satellite record, with particularly low coverage observed north of Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya in the Russian Arctic sector. Antarctic sea ice extent ranked fourth lowest for August, with below-average coverage most pronounced in the Amundsen Sea and Indian Ocean sector.

Expert Perspectives

"August 2026 was a remarkable month in the global climate record," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at ECMWF. "It was both the warmest August and the warmest month ever recorded, with global temperatures reaching 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the return of global temperatures above 1.5°C. Combined with record global sea surface temperatures and the warmest summer on record for Western Europe, these observations show how climate change is driving extremes across both the atmosphere and the oceans."

UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell responded to the Copernicus report by stating, "The evidence is irrefutable: this is the spiraling price of humanity's fossil fuel addiction, and the global climate crisis it is fueling. It is now time to stop acting surprised that our warming planet keeps getting warmer. This is occurring exactly as forecast by scientists literally decades ago."

Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler added, "Humans haven't seen temperatures as hot as today for, arguably, at least the last 100,000 years."

Looking Forward to 2027

Climate scientists note that the year following an El Niño peak typically registers as the hottest on record globally. While NOAA's statistical models initially placed 2026 as having only a 1.4% chance of being the hottest year ever recorded, this analysis does not fully account for the strength of the current El Niño event. Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather posits that 2026 has a 75% chance of being the warmest year on record, with 2027 likely to set a new record as the El Niño event reaches its peak intensity.

"We expected 2026 to be in the top five, but now it's in second place, maybe in first place," Burgess said. "We've seen a striking reminder of how quickly the climate system can shift when multiple drivers have aligned."

The period from June to August 2026 was confirmed as the joint-warmest boreal summer on record globally, on par with summer 2024. The European summer surpassed the 2003 benchmark that had stood for more than two decades, while the U.S. contiguous states broke the 1936 Dust Bowl record that had persisted for more than 90 years.

Sources

• Copernicus Climate Change Service, September 10, 2026.
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), September 10, 2026.
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, September 10, 2026.
• Phys.org, September 10, 2026.
• Carbon Brief, September 11, 2026.
• Yale Climate Connections, September 10, 2026.
• CNN, September 12, 2026.