Paris, France · 9 October 2024 — The International Energy Agency (IEA) has confirmed that 2024 was another record-breaking year for renewable energy, with approximately 670 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity added globally. However, the agency's Renewables 2024 report warns that the world is still not on track to meet the COP28 pledge to triple global renewable capacity by 2030.
Record Additions, Slowing Growth Rate
The 670 GW added in 2024 represents the highest annual increase in renewable energy capacity ever recorded. Yet the rate of growth slowed compared to 2023, when capacity additions surged by an exceptional 60%. The 2024 figure reflects continued expansion but at a more moderate pace.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power remain the dominant forces in the energy transition, projected to account for 95% of all renewable capacity additions through 2030. In 2024 specifically, solar PV additions continued to expand significantly — by nearly 20% — while wind grew by approximately 10%.
China Drives Global Growth
China remained the primary driver of global renewable energy growth in 2024. Despite facing challenges related to grid integration and curtailment — the limiting of excess renewable energy generation when the grid cannot absorb it — China's solar PV additions during the first eight months of 2024 were nearly 30% higher than during the same period in 2023.
| Region | Share of 2024 Additions | Key Trends |
|---|---|---|
| China | ~60% | Record solar PV growth, grid curtailment challenges |
| European Union | ~15% | Offshore wind expansion, REPowerEU targets |
| United States | ~10% | Inflation Reduction Act incentives |
| Rest of World | ~15% | Emerging markets accelerating, but from low base |
China's dominance reflects both its massive domestic market and its position as the world's leading manufacturer of solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage systems. However, the IEA noted that grid integration challenges — particularly the inability of transmission infrastructure to keep pace with renewable deployment — are creating increasing bottlenecks.
The Solar Manufacturing Glut
A significant development in 2024 was the massive oversupply in solar manufacturing capacity. Global solar module production capacity reached over 1,100 GW — more than double projected global demand. This surplus led to a dramatic drop in solar module prices, which more than halved since early 2023.
The price collapse has already forced several major solar manufacturers in China, Europe, and the United States to idle production lines or exit the market entirely. The IEA warned that if the oversupply leads to a manufacturing contraction, it could paradoxically slow deployment in the medium term.
The Tripling Target: A Growing Gap
At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 — from approximately 3,400 GW in 2022 to 11,000 GW. This commitment was identified as the single most effective measure to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach.
However, the IEA's analysis shows that under current policies and market trends, global renewable capacity is projected to grow by only 2.7 times by 2030, reaching approximately 9,200 GW. To close the gap and achieve the tripling target, annual capacity additions would need to scale up to nearly 940 GW per year by 2030 — a 40% increase over 2024's record level.
Barriers to Faster Deployment
The IEA identified several key barriers preventing faster renewable energy deployment:
Grid Infrastructure
The most significant bottleneck is the inadequacy of electricity grid infrastructure. In many countries, transmission networks cannot accommodate the rapid influx of variable renewable energy. Grid connection queues have grown to years, and curtailment — where renewable energy is wasted because the grid cannot absorb it — is rising.
Permitting and Licensing
Lengthy and complex permitting processes remain a major obstacle, particularly for wind power in Europe and the United States. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive has introduced accelerated permitting procedures, but implementation has been uneven across member states.
Financing in Developing Countries
While renewable energy costs have fallen dramatically, the cost of capital remains a critical barrier in developing countries. Interest rates and perceived investment risk in many African, South Asian, and Southeast Asian nations make renewable projects significantly more expensive to finance than in OECD countries, despite lower technology costs.
Solar and Wind: The Path to 2030
Looking ahead, the IEA projects that solar PV will remain the dominant technology, accounting for approximately 80% of capacity additions through 2030. The continued decline in module prices, combined with improvements in battery storage, is expected to drive solar deployment even in regions with less favorable solar resources.
Wind power, while growing more slowly, is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the decade, driven by the expansion of offshore wind in Europe, China, and increasingly in the United States and East Asia.
The report also highlights the growing importance of battery energy storage systems (BESS), which are essential for integrating high shares of variable renewables. Battery storage capacity is projected to grow sixfold between 2024 and 2030, though this too faces challenges in critical mineral supply chains and manufacturing capacity.
A Decisive Decade
The IEA's findings underscore a central paradox of the energy transition: renewable energy deployment is accelerating at an unprecedented rate, yet still not fast enough to meet the climate goals that the world has set for itself.
"Renewables are moving fast — faster than at any point in history. But to triple capacity by 2030, we need to move even faster. The technology is ready, the economics are favorable, and the political will exists. What is missing is the infrastructure, the financing, and the permitting speed to match the ambition."
The report's conclusions will weigh heavily on negotiations at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where countries are expected to grapple with the implementation gap between climate pledges and on-the-ground delivery.
Sources:
- IEA, Renewables 2024 Report (iea.org, October 2024)
- IEA, Renewables 2024 Executive Summary (iea.org)
- IEA, Renewables 2024 Electricity Analysis (iea.org)
- UNFCCC, COP28 UAE Consensus on Tripling Renewables (unfccc.int)
- IRENA, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024 (irena.org)
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Institutional Research Desk · Foresight Institute of Research and Translation
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