Dar es Salaam, Tanzania · 29 September 2025 — As Tanzania approaches its general election on 29 October 2025, the country's two main opposition parties — CHADEMA and ACT-Wazalendo — have been effectively barred from participating, marking what observers describe as the most significant rollback of multiparty democracy in the country since the reintroduction of competitive elections in 1995.
Human Rights Watch warned on 29 September 2025 that "deepening repression threatens elections" in Tanzania, documenting a pattern of restrictions on political participation, freedom of assembly, and freedom of expression that has intensified throughout the year.
CHADEMA: Disqualification Over Electoral Code
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disqualified CHADEMA — Tanzania's largest opposition party — from the 2025 general election and all subsequent by-elections until 2030. The decision was based on the party's refusal to sign a mandatory electoral code of conduct in April 2025.
CHADEMA leaders, including prominent figure Tundu Lissu, have faced ongoing legal challenges, including treason charges. Lissu, who survived an assassination attempt in 2017 and was the party's presidential candidate in the disputed 2020 election, has been in detention since April 2025. The party has maintained its calls for democratic reforms and the release of political detainees, even as its operational capacity has been severely constrained.
ACT-Wazalendo: A Court Reversal Overturned
ACT-Wazalendo, the other major opposition party, faced a parallel exclusion. The party's presidential candidate, Luhaga Mpini, was blocked from the race by the electoral commission. While the Dodoma High Court initially overturned this disqualification in September 2025 — offering a brief moment of hope for opposition participation — the INEC subsequently reinstated the ban, preventing the party from fielding a candidate for the presidency.
The back-and-forth over ACT-Wazalendo's participation illustrates what observers describe as a pattern of judicial independence being undermined by executive interference in electoral processes. The High Court's ruling, while legally sound, was rendered effectively moot by the electoral commission's refusal to comply.
The Samia Suluhu Hassan Presidency
President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who assumed office following the death of President John Magufuli in March 2021, initially signalled a more open approach to governance. She lifted restrictions on political rallies, reopened media outlets that had been shut down, and initiated a process of national reconciliation that raised hopes for a democratic reset.
However, as the 2025 election approached, observers noted a reversal. The restrictions on CHADEMA and ACT-Wazalendo represent a return to — and in some respects an intensification of — the authoritarian practices of the Magufuli era. The 2020 general election, held under Magufuli, was widely criticised for irregularities, with opposition figures arrested, polling agents barred from stations, and results disputed.
Regional and International Implications
Tanzania's democratic backsliding has implications beyond its borders. The country has historically been regarded as one of East Africa's more stable democracies, and its political trajectory influences regional dynamics within the East African Community (EAC).
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) has tracked Tanzania's democratic trajectory through its Democracy Tracker, documenting the progressive narrowing of civic space. The organisation's data shows declines in multiple dimensions of democracy, including representative government, fundamental rights, and checks on government.
The European Union's external action service has also expressed concern about the exclusion of opposition parties, noting that the credibility of elections depends on the participation of a genuine opposition. The EU's statement echoed broader international sentiment that Tanzania's democratic credentials are eroding.
The October Election and Beyond
With the main opposition parties excluded, the 29 October 2025 election is expected to proceed with President Samia Suluhu Hassan seeking a second term under the ruling CCM banner. The election will feature smaller parties and independent candidates, but none with the national organisational infrastructure or popular support base of CHADEMA or ACT-Wazalendo.
The post-election period will be closely watched. Civil society organisations, both domestic and international, have called for peaceful participation and urged the government to ensure that the electoral process, even with a restricted field, is conducted transparently. The African Union and the East African Community may deploy election observation missions, though their ability to assess the fairness of a contest without major opposition parties will be inherently limited.
For Tanzania, the 2025 election represents a crossroads. The decision to exclude the main opposition parties — whether justified on technical grounds or not — will shape the country's democratic trajectory for years to come. As Human Rights Watch has documented, the deepening repression extends beyond electoral rules to encompass restrictions on civil society, media freedom, and the right to peaceful assembly. The cumulative effect is a significant contraction of the democratic space that Tanzania has spent three decades building.
Sources
- Human Rights Watch, Tanzania: Deepening Repression Threatens Elections, 29 September 2025. Available at:
- Human Rights Watch, World Report 2026: Tanzania. Available at:
- International IDEA, Democracy Tracker: Tanzania. Available at:
- International Center for Transitional Justice, Tanzania's Main Opposition CHADEMA Party Barred from Upcoming Elections. Available at:
- The Chanzo, Tanzania's 2025 Elections: As Campaigns Begin, Main Opposition Party CHADEMA Fights for Its Survival, 8 September 2025. Available at:
- Mashariki Peace and Conflict Centre, Tanzania's 2025 Elections and the Future of Democracy in the Greater Eastern Africa. Available at:
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